China’s growing influence is changing the world order, the risk of US-China conflict is high
Kathmandu. China is expanding its influence in the world order under the leadership of President Xi Jinping and pursuing a strategy to challenge the dominance of the United States, according to the analysis.
Rather than seeking immediate direct confrontation with the United States, China is seeking to expand its economic, diplomatic and military power to build a new international order in the long term, analysts say.
Ryan Haas, a foreign policy analyst at the US-based Brookings Institution, said in an analysis published in China Leadership Monitor that China sees the US as a “weakening, but still dangerous” force.
According to him, Beijing is now looking to expand its power and influence rather than directly competing with the United States for leadership. “Even if China thinks the power gap with the U. S. is narrowing, it is not presenting it as an immediate victory,” Haas said. According to him, China has adopted a strategy of long-term competition, avoiding direct conflict between the U. S. and China.
China is trying to change the political and normative underpinnings of the current U. S.-led liberal international order, according to Haas.
However, he said that he wants to maintain the aspects of the current international system that benefit him. China has long claimed that the influence of Western powers is weakening and its power is increasing. In a report released in 2021, China’s Foreign Ministry said that the US political system is in serious trouble due to “money-centric politics, elite rule, political polarization and weak system”.
The China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, a think tank affiliated to China’s Ministry of State Security, also concluded that the old international order was weakening and the new order had not yet been established.
In recent years, China has been showing its influence in areas such as rare earth, energy, trade, and regional security. China has also continued to assert its claims in the South China Sea.
In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration rejected China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. The 10th anniversary of the verdict fell on July 12, 2026. China has rejected the decision, calling it politically motivated.
The dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea has also become a major center of U. S.-China competition. The Philippines has been resisting China’s claims and pressure.
Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Jay Tariela said it would continue to speak up for his country’s rights and truth, even if it was challenging to confront Chinese disinformation. Meanwhile, Chinese analysts claim that the power gap between China and the United States is narrowing. However, China has moderated its public statements about the downfall of the United States, according to the analysis. Haas also concludes that the purpose of this could be to prevent US President Donald Trump from becoming more provocative.
The upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in September is seen as important from the point of view of US-China relations.The two countries are at loggerheads over trade, technology, rare earth minerals, Taiwan and global strategic influence.
Analysts say that the change in the balance of power has made the competition between the two countries more sensitive. The situation between the weakening of one power and the rapid emergence of the other is seen as the ‘Thucydides’ trap that increases the risk of conflict.
According to Haas, Beijing also understands the risk of a direct US-China conflict. Therefore, China has taken a policy of avoiding conflict, limited cooperation and preparing for long-term competition, seeing the US as its main strategic challenge. At the same time, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has said that there is a possibility that China could take military action against Taiwan by 2028. In an interview on September 13, Rudd estimated that by 2028, there is a third chance that China will invade Taiwan. He said that he has been studying China-US relations for a long time and that he has not taken this conclusion lightly.
According to Rudd, China is intensifying its preparations for military action against Taiwan. He has also described Taiwan’s presidential election in 2028 as a possible “tripwire”.
He fears that if the anti-China Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term in that election, Beijing could use it as a reason to take military action.
2028 will also be the last year of Trump’s second term. According to Rudd, if China draws the wrong conclusions about Trump’s statements about Taiwan and US commitments, it could increase the risk.
However, Rudd said that if China objectively assesses all the risks, it would conclude that military action against Taiwan would be extremely risky. Therefore, he said that although war is not certain in 2028, the risk has increased.
Weakening of the ‘rules-based order’
The analysis also states that the US-led ‘rules-based international order’ is weakening. According to Sir John Chipman, head of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, even during the Cold War, international relations were mainly governed by the balance of power and arms control. At present, there is neither an effective balance of power, nor is there enough capacity to implement international rules.
He said that international law is not adequate for the current security challenges. He said that the current international law has not adequately addressed the new types of challenges of non-state parties and ‘grey zones’.
China needs resources and partners for world leadership
According to Haas, China is beginning to believe that it no longer needs to be bound by the international political order led by the United States as compulsively as it used to be. But instead of completely dismantling the old system and building a new one, China is trying to create a system that matches its priorities by removing aspects that are unacceptable to it.
Although China opposes win-win cooperation and a zero-sum game, it has been accused of using economic and diplomatic pressure on weaker countries.
Critics say that trade, tourism and investment are also being used as tools of political pressure. China’s investment under the Belt and Road Initiative has decreased in recent times. As a result, Beijing has started to be more cautious in the selection of projects and countries to invest.
While China’s ambitions to change the international order are clear, it is still a question of whether China will succeed in mobilizing the financial resources, investment in international institutions and the support of other major countries to implement it, according to Haas.
According to him, as the United States weakens its traditional world leadership role, there is an opportunity for China to expand its influence. But to take that place, China will have to increase not only political rhetoric and ambition but also increase investment in economic resources, international partnerships, and the global public good.
Although there are indications that the decade 2020 will be a decade of China’s influence, China still has to face challenges to convince the world community that its objectives are peaceful and acceptable. (ANI)
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