Ganesh Amgai
The United States intervened directly militarily in Iraq in 2003 with the aim of ending Saddam Hussein’s regime and establishing a new political order in the Middle East. Claims of the presence of weapons of mass destruction, the widespread expansion of U. S. influence in the Middle East, and the guarantee of global energy security were the main bases of the immediate invasion. However, this costly military operation failed to create the stable, peaceful, and democratic Iraq that had been envisioned, leaving the U. S. in the grip of constant policy reshuffle and a deep strategic crisis. This unexpected scenario in Iraq has severely disrupted the long-term plan of U. S. foreign policy.
The historic process of a full withdrawal has been initiated by gradually reducing the presence of U. S. forces in Iraq due to prolonged conflict, immense human and material losses, and internal and external pressures. This strategic move has profoundly affected not only Iraq’s internal power equation but also the geopolitical map and balance of power in the entire Middle East. This costly military presence for decades and the current forced withdrawal has put a serious question mark on U. S. strategic superiority in the Middle East and its pretense of being invincible. It has paved the way for the entry of new powers into the region.
This U. S. military withdrawal should be seen not only as the formal end of a mission but also as the collapse of an era of Western hegemony in the Middle East and the emergence of a new multipolar balance of power.
This historic event has fully exposed the limitations and over-militarization failures of US policy in world politics. In the coming days, there are clear indications that the stability of the region will be determined by mutual understanding of regional powers and new regional alliances rather than by the will of any single superpower or external interventionist country. This further confirms that the scope of US influence in world politics is shrinking.
U. S. Objectives and Reality
Elimination of Weapons of Mass Destruction The main theoretical basis for the U. S. invasion was to destroy chemical and biological weapons in Iraq, although no such weapons were ever found to exist in the years following the war. This controversial claim turned out to be just a geopolitical pretext, which raised serious questions about the legitimacy of international law at the outset. It also tarnished the credibility of the US intelligence community in the world community.
The overthrow of Saddam Hussein was to end the Ba’ath Party and Saddam Hussein’s authoritarian regime in the Middle East, which were considered hostile to American interests, and establish a Western-oriented political structure and democracy. However, this short-sighted coup d’état created a political vacuum, pushing the country into more severe civil war and internal instability. It made the lives of the common people of Iraq more miserable and forced the entire region into the flames of great unrest and violence.
Energy Security and Oil Supply Control Another strategic goal was to maintain the monopoly influence of American and Western multinationals in Iraq’s energy market, which has the world’s second-largest oil reserves. Although it was intended to fully protect the U. S. economy and global energy markets, the decades-long conflict severely affected oil production and supply. This led to huge fluctuations in the price of oil in the world market.
Strategic military bases in the Middle East were to establish a strong base for a permanent military presence on the strategically sensitive terrain of Iraq to directly monitor Iran, Syria, and the Gulf states. However, these costly bases became the main targets of constant attacks for the U. S. military, preventing the U. S. from holding the region for long periods of time and eventually forcing it to withdraw.
Expansion of the Global War on Terrorism Its ultimate strategic objective was to expand the strategic scope of the Global War on Terror throughout the Middle East in the name of preventing the spread of extremist groups such as al-Qaeda. Ironically, taking advantage of the power vacuum and administrative chaos created by the US intervention, the even more dangerous ISIS later emerged, which completely thwarted the US security strategy.
Economic Strategy and World Order
The United States has long pursued a strategy of influencing the world market through various restrictions and strict security controls on the energy exports of the Gulf countries. Through this strategy, it was widely used as an effective economic weapon to monopolize the energy market and keep competing nations under constant pressure.
The U. S. diplomatic effort to balance oil prices by reviving Venezuela’s vast oil reserves on the world market is a new link to this. Learning lessons from the extreme instability in the Middle East, the U. S. has now intensified its search and exploration of reliable alternative sources of energy in the Western Hemisphere.
The U. S. appears to have an economic plan to reduce its growing national debt burden through revenues from energy trade and domestic production. This pragmatic strategy is deeply believed to help protect the U. S. domestic economy from a potential crisis and continue its economic dominance in external markets.
The strategic move is to consolidate its global economic control by continuing the strict obligation that global oil trade must inevitably be in the U. S. dollar. At a time when emerging power countries are looking for a new currency as an alternative to the dollar, maintaining this financial supremacy has become an existential battle for the United States.
Through all these economic and diplomatic steps, the United States is constantly sending a clear message to the world that the United States is still a superpower economically and militarily. With the rise of the second powers to change the world, the United States now has to work many times harder than ever before on the diplomatic and economic front to preserve this dignified image.
Balance of Power and Geopolitics
The economic and political gravity of the world is shifting rapidly from the Americas and Europe to the emerging countries of Asia and the Global South. This historic change clearly indicates that the days of the sole dominance of the West in global decision-making and policy-making are now coming to an end forever.
Emerging countries such as China, Russia, India, and Brazil have begun to engage in bilateral trade in their own local currencies, seeking a single alternative to the U. S. dollar. This has weakened the grip of U. S. financial institutions and the effectiveness of sanctions, laying a strong foundation for a strong alternative international economic system.
Emerging countries have now stopped succumbing to any blind pressure from the West and have adopted a neutral and independent foreign policy in accordance with their own national interests. They have established their own identity and influence on the international stage and have started playing a highly balanced role in the competitive conflict between the powerful countries.
The Global South is creating its own alternative financial structure by establishing new development banks as an alternative to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. It has challenged traditional Western financial monopolies and provided greater autonomy and economic security to emerging economies. As the focus of technology, production, population and markets shifts to Asia, it is certain that the next century will be Asian and Global South-oriented rather than Western-oriented.
It is ushering in a new and powerful era, completely changing the direction and state of world politics and economy.
Conclusions and Upcoming Security Challenges
In the modern world order, conventional military power is no longer the only means of determining power. The future and security of the earth will now be determined by new complex and invisible threats. The era in which only one superpower can control the world alone is now completely over. In the current scenario, it is becoming impossible to solve the major crises of humanity without the joint cooperation and common vision of all countries.
The uncontrolled development and misuse of artificial intelligence and autonomous weapon systems has made the nature of war more terrifying, automatic and unpredictable. It has added serious challenges to international law, humanitarian security and moral values, which, if not effectively regulated in time, can lead to great destruction for humanity.
Serious cybersecurity threats, cyberattacks on the national grid, financial systems and military communications by state-backed hackers and terrorists have increased the risk of destroying the overall security architecture of the digital age. Such indirect but extremely deadly digital wars have the potential to bring the security systems of any sovereign country to collapse in an instant.
Climate change and the environmental refugee crisis, global warming, food insecurity, drinking water shortages, and natural disasters, displacing millions of people, are leading to new regional conflicts in the future. This serious mix of traditional and non-traditional threats is further complexizing the world’s security architecture, which requires a collaborative global policy. In the modern world order, traditional military power is no longer the only means of determining power. The future and security of the earth will now be determined by new complex and invisible threats. In a changing global environment, the United States no longer wants to carry the burden of heavy economic burdens by deploying an old-fashioned military around the world.
In line with this policy, it has withdrawn troops from Afghanistan and gradually seems to be on the path of becoming economically stronger by changing its military strategy to emphasizing advanced technology rather than ground deployment. In this context, the era when only a single superpower can control the world alone is over.
प्रतिक्रिया दिनुहोस्
